February 21, 2008

REO shopping time!

Its happening, real deals in the East Bay!

These are not dumps, are in decent neighborhoods, and the bank actually prices the property to sell, way below market!!  Note, we are not talking about short sales here.  In fact, I would avoid short sales.  In those examples, I have seen realtors price the property at a bargain price, only to find out that the bank/lender had not even reviewed the property listing and reject the offers as they come in.  Its funny, you could have the same bank having completely different policies and posture with disposing REOs from short sales.  The short sale department will take up to a month to respond to an offer and go through a staggered price reduction strategy.  On the other hand, the REO department, will sell the home at 20-30% below current market value even if it means taking a $150,000 loss on its books.  I haven't quite figured the "why" of it yet, but rather than spin my wheels rationalizing bank behavior, I rather be flushing these real "deals" out for my clients.

So here are two examples:

2019 AlScaledimagetura Drive is in Concord, about 1.5 blocks from Concord library and walking distance to Santos Plaza.  It is 1,600sft 3BR/2BA on a 0.2 acre lot.  The house had some cosmetic challenges.  Owner bought it in Mar 06 for $525,000, bank took it back on 1/15/08 for $368,000 and prompty put it on the market on 2/8/08 for an unbelievable price of $250,000.  Of course, sold on the day I saw it, which was the first day on the market.

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881 Litwin Drive, also in Concord.  Walking distance to Trader Joe's on the corner of Treat and Oak Grove and practically in Walnut Creek.  This 3BR/2BA home sold in 10/2005 for $655,000.  The bank took it back as an REO on its books for $504,000.  Brand new on the market today at $399,000! 

Remember my Oct 19 post on REOs and the 4BR townhouse on Hamlin Loop.  Well that REO first listed at $699,900 and went pending 1/23/08, 205 days later when the price was reduced to $524,900.  You think the banks are finally catching on!  Are you?

If you are looking for a good pair of eyes for your next investment or your first home, please call for any advice or help you need.

November 29, 2007

Biegnets in Oakland?

If you are on your way to the Oakland Airport or surrounding community and you are looking for a quick bite and awesome coffee, you have to check out Powderface located at the Fruitvale Station in Oakland.  They serve the same style biegnets that you can get at Cafe Du Mode in New Orleans, only these are bigger and better!  The establishment is hip and trendy with a loft atmosphere, offering magazines, wi-fi and light lunch offerings including crepes.  Whenever we are in town, my wife and I must stop in to say hi to Mike and Lauren(your super friendly owner hosts) and get our piping hot fresh biegnets!  The biegnets are covered in a mountain of super fine powdered sugar.  I love sitting in the outdoor patio and watch my wife Cynthia struggle with keeping the sugar off her face and clothing - its impossible!  Oh, these biegnets literally melt in your mouth.  They are that good but I must limit myself to three!  http://www.powderface.net/

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Ben,our Berner, enjoying his biegnet!  You'll get to see his pretty face another time.

Deeply in a Buyer's Market!

A for-sale inventory of about six months is considered to indicate a market that is roughly in equilibrium, with a supply greater than six months generally indicating a buyer's market.  This week, Chief Economist Leslie Appleton Young of the California Association of Realtors announced that the Unsold Index in California stood at 16.3 months in October, indicating that it would take an estimated 16.3 months to exhaust the supply of for-sale homes at the October sales pace. The index stood at 6.4 months in October 2006

The rate of sales for single-family, detached resale homes plummeted 40.2 percent in California in October compared to the same month last year, while the median price dropped 9.9 percent. 

Danville and San Ramon ranked 4th and 8th in California respectively with the highest median sales priced homes at $1,017,500 and $835,000 for October.

Freddie Mac reported that 30-year fixed-mortgage interest rates averaged 6.38 percent in October 2007, compared with 6.36 percent in October 2006, and adjustable-mortgage interest rates averaged 5.68 percent in October 2007 compared with 5.56 percent in October 2006.

What does this all mean?  No, we have by no means seen the bottom of this market.  My guess is that we are at least 6 months from that low point given that the economy (globally) has to shake out the credit fiasco.   First time buyers who have been patiently waiting for their time, "tis the season to be jolly"!  Choices are aplenty, negotiations tip heavily in your favor.  Move up resellers?  If you can wait, then hold off, otherwise, seek out a real bargain so that when you sell, you can move it quicker by being more strategic and agressive in YOUR pricing, i.e. don't be greedy.  The real bargain bin is with short sales and REOs.  Its not for everyone, but with patience, one can really score on these deals.

Img_0208Wild Turkeys celebrating Thanksgiving on the Sunol Valley Golf Course

October 19, 2007

REOs at Citrus Walk, Walnut Creek

It was April 2005, people were camping for days to be one of the lucky ones in line to purchase a home in Walnut Creek's newest development, Citrus Walk.  All phases of the homes sold briskly.  The 2 bedroom townhomes sold between $493,000 and $558,000, 3 bedrooms between $665,000 and $681,500 and 4 bedroom homes sold between $678,000 and $856,00 (there were 2 4BR plans 1604sft and 1850 sft).

Today, there is a 4 bedroom REO that is listed at $611,900 ($579,900 since 10/23), seasoned down from its original list price of $699,900.  Its been on the market for almost 4 months.  The unit looks practically unlived in.  I think there is a strong liklihood to get a hold of this property below $600,000, about 20% off the high of what this model was selling for.

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210 Hamlin Loop, Walnut Creek

4 bedroom, 2.5 bath, 1604 sft

There is also another 2 BR REO in the complex listed at $409,900 ($389,500 since 11/15). This one has only been a REO listing for 7 days and is already 27% off the highest recorded sale.

Am I the only one thinking that these are great deals?  It seems that even if the market remains soft, you have a significant equity cushion from your other neighbors to help you ride this investment until a new wind carries you to the next big crest.

October 17, 2007

Mercer Condos, Walnut Creek - What's the latest?

Since I drive by the Mercer condos at least 3 times a week on my way to church, its easy to track progress of this high end development.  Phase 1 is now complete and people have begun to move in.  Phase 1 is on the back quadrant along Trinity Avenue.   

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As you can tell from the photo, landscaping is presently being laid down.  Nice vintage style street lamps give it curb appeal.  A line of evasive and tall bamboo is planned for the far end of the complex to provide some privacy from the apartment complex behind.   A high-end restaurant is about to sign on as an anchor tenant and there will be other small retail and cafe options along California Boulevard.

The development is 65% sold if you can believe it.  There has been one price adjustment, unfortunately upward, but no further price increases are anticipated.  Duhh!  1 bedrooms are priced from just about $500,000 (unless you take the units facing the apartments), two bedrooms range from $750,000 to $950,000 and the 3 bedrooms go from $1.1 million and up.   HOA dues range from $470-565 per month.  Starting to get the picture?  This is expensive stuff.  Comparatively, you can get into a 1,400 sft 2 bedroom newer, highly upgraded hi-rise condo in The City(downtown) with VIEWS for just over $1 million.   While Walnut Creek is not San Francisco, it is probably one of the best suburban walking cities in the country.  The quality of retail, dining and theatre is amazing and people watching is never boring.  Still, Mercer recognizes the market slowdown and are now offering to pay up to 6 months of your mortgage if you use their preferred lender.

What do you think?  Can Mercer prices hold over the coming months as they try to sell out in a declining market? 

REO Properties: What to expect when making an offer

So you want to buy a REO (Real Estate Owned asset belowing to a bank/lender after foreclosure).  Well, it so happens that our MLS inventory of REOs is starting to rise and I suspect will continue to rise as we see more homeowners struggle with making rising payments in a climate of falling home values.

The problem is, banks are not good sellers.  You would think they have a system of liquidating properties when they receive them but they really don't.  Banks are unemotional, make decisions based on a spreadsheet and farm off the actual sale to default service providers(servicer) working under tight decision constraints.

So Rule #1:  Have a lot of patience.  The process of buying a REO demands this of you, both from a stategic as well as a mental survival standpoint.  Banks list the properties based on a BPO(Broker Price Opinion) and an appraisal so when it first comes on the market, its pretty much at market price.  They appear cheaper because they are generally in disrepair.   After some time on the market, the listing agent and the servicer will reduce the price by some percentage.  It keeps doing this every few weeks till an offer is made and accepted.  The percentage and timing of price reductions and the "floor" price of what the bank will accept are predeterminded so lowballing from the outset generally receives an outright rejection.  You just have to monitor the property price as it falls.  If you don't mind rejection, just keep resubmiting the same offer until the bank's acceptance parameters comes down to you.

In one case, my client became aware that his neighbor was foreclosed on and wanted to make a bid on it shortly after it became an REO in 11/06.   We knew what the loan balance was($490,000) and no one had picked it up at the court sale.  So we thought we would make a nice offer, something higher than the loan balance but significantly less than market.  After weeks on end of poking around with the bank and the default service company of who had the "file" and the authority to negotiate. I finally found out it was the listing agent and who he was.  Unfortuantely, he said he was not prepared to receive an offer till an appraisal had been completed.  6 weeks later, the appraisal was done by which time my client had long lost interest.  The property came on the market at $624,900 on 7/10/07, had a price reduction to $598,000 on 8/30 and another to $598,000 on 9/16.  Its still on the market today and still overpriced. 

Also if you do make an offer, don't expect to hear back in the standard 3 days.  Response time can take days or even weeks.  Meanwhile, another offer could slip in and now you are in a multiple offer situation.  I had this happen to me on another offer.  My clients were so put off with the lack of professional courtesy throughout the whole process, so much so it derailed their enthusiam to buy a house after.  Whatever happened to "time is of the essence", a golden rule of real estate.

Rule #2:  Do your due deligence up front.  Before you determine the offer price, make sure you know you are buying the house "as is", i.e. don't expect any repairs to be performed by the bank or to come back and renegotiate price after inspections.  Get a preliminary title report and check for outstanding liens on the property such as unpaid property taxes and homeowner dues.  If the property is not vacant, insist that the bank remove/evicts the occupants prior to close.  Be prepared to have the bank forgo the local standard cost sharing of escrow fees, transfer taxes and title.  Perform your inspections thoroughly as the bank will generally complete very few disclosures. PRICE ACCORDINGLY.

Rule #3:  Treat this as a business transaction and be emotionally detached as you can - after all the Seller is.

So here's the other looming problem with purchasing REOs.  The bank's objective is to sell the property at the best possible price to minimize its loss.  Unfortunately, many of the REOs today were upside down properties and 100% financed.  That means the book value for the property may be much closer to market price making the banks even less flexible in negotiating.  So for the many REOs out there, you still have to patient to score.

The irony of all this is that the bank also created the predicament they find themselves in.  To increase loan activity and revenues, they lowered their lending standards and significantly increased the probability of defaults. Yet, their practices for liquidating REOs are tight, inflexible and outdated.  I think they need to go back to the drawing board or we will see banks swim in a sea of non-performing assets and red ink.

October 16, 2007

Alamo Post Office

On my visit to the post office today, George (the postmaster?, i.e. manager) and I had a quick chat on the history of the Alamo post office, which apparently is the oldest in the San Ramon Valley and began in 1852.  The mail carrier, would begin his route from Martinez, through Alamo, to Mission San Jose on horse and cart, twice a week to deliver mail.  What's cool is that the post office was always an important community gathering place. According to longtime Postmistress Bertha Linhares, when the mail was expected the men,"…sat in the post office-store in the winter … the women went into our sitting room and visited with my mother … We always heard all the news and troubles of the Alamo residents."  Okay, something to think about the next time I'm in the dreadful line....perhaps strike up a conversation and who knows what.

Img_1994_3 The post office is presently located at 160 Alamo Plaza.

First Post

The real estate market slowdown has one bright spot for me.  Its given me the opportunity to dive into the blog world.  I am not a writer and it actually takes me awhile to digest my thoughts and find my voice.  But then again, when I am passionate about something, I can be quite the yakker.

Real estate is something I am passionate about so the majority of my posts will be on the subject of real estate but perhaps with a little twist. I love the community I live in and I am also amazed at the natural and not so natural surroundings of where I live. This blog will be more like a journey of my life, my conversations, my learnings.  You will see posts on great home deals, of people and their stories, of my commentary on reports and trends, of great local events, of local food finds, of local folklore, of life along the suburban towns along the 680 corridor.

Here is a sample of what you might expect....

Where is the best breakfast you can find for under $5?  Answer:  It has to be the Marie Callender's in Walnut Creek.  For $4.99, you get two eggs any style served with a side of home fries plus a toasty tasty muffin the size of a softball (definitely not Costco).  Service has been consistently first rate.  Open from 7a.m, its my first choice for an early breakfast meeting.  Let me know if you have found someting better.

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